Thursday, September 09, 2010

And this is how inflation starts ... climate related food price increases

The Russians have recently decided to continue the ban on wheat exports, until late 2011, as the Russian heat wave and associated drought have reduced this year's harvest to what is currently estimated to be about two-thirds a normal harvest (of course, once they actually harvest and weigh the harvest, I suspect they'll likely find that the actual harvest is less than that; just as happened in America following the 2009 harvest).

In a climate-changed world, this is just what will be one of many stories about inflation arising from food issues. Current estimates are for Russian inflation to increase to 7% from the current 5.5%, due primarily to a "price shock" associated with the reduced harvest. 

A very broad view of a long-term climate-change investment strategy, would be to go long on soft commodities - however, expect lots of volatility, sometimes wild volatility, as part of this equation.

Reuters story here

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